{"id":169,"date":"2020-05-26T12:27:09","date_gmt":"2020-05-26T12:27:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/2020\/05\/26\/statistics-and-covid-19-forecasting-the-spread\/"},"modified":"2026-06-08T19:06:51","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T23:06:51","slug":"statistics-and-covid-19-forecasting-the-spread","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/2020\/05\/26\/statistics-and-covid-19-forecasting-the-spread\/","title":{"rendered":"Statistics and COVID-19: Forecasting the Spread"},"content":{"rendered":"

Members of the Wolfpack have stepped up in unimaginable ways during the COVID-19 pandemic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Michael DeWitt<\/span><\/a>, a 2019 graduate of the <\/span>Master of Statistics online program<\/span><\/a>, has been working since the beginning of the outbreak to forecast the spread of the pandemic in a few North Carolina counties for Greensboro-based Cone Health.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Cropped
Michael DeWitt<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

DeWitt is a data scientist and applied statistician in the health care field, and he\u2019s putting his NC State Online education to immediate use in this role.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI am forecasting the spread of the pandemic in Guilford, Alamance, Rockingham, and Randolph counties and the corresponding impacts on our personal protective equipment (PPE),\u201d says DeWitt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI built a simulator in Shiny \u2014 hosted in a docker container \u2014 so that our leaders can manipulate the inputs,\u201d DeWitt adds. \u201cIt is quite frankly the most frightening work I have ever done because each data point represents a person caught in this pandemic, but it feels good to be in the thick of it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Teaching Associate Professor and Director of Statistics Online Education <\/span>Justin Post <\/span><\/a>explains this work and its significance in helping leaders make data-informed decisions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cR is a powerful statistical software widely used in statistics and data science. R can be used to summarize data, create models, and communicate results,\u201d Post says.<\/span><\/p>\n

Post explains that with the lack of PPE supplies in the current pandemic, being able to create a model that can be used to allocate the supplies is vital. \u201cThis model, of course, has to make assumptions and take in inputs. The model can be run using different inputs and the results compared. This can help to determine best- and worst-case scenarios among other things.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cR Shiny is a package that can be used with R to create interactive web applications \u2014 similar to what is seen on <\/span>Johns Hopkins coronavirus website<\/span><\/a>,\u201d Post says.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These types of interactive applications allow users to manipulate the inputs based on their expertise and knowledge. Medical and political leaders will then have the most information possible at their disposal.<\/p>\n

To host the R Shiny applications in an accessible and secure place, DeWitt used a container.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cA container is essentially a self-contained bit of software. Everything needed to run the application \u2014 operating system, configuration files, R, etc. \u2014 is in one place without local dependencies, and the container can be assured of working as intended once hosted,\u201d says Post.<\/span><\/p>\n

All of these topics are covered in the ST 558: Data Science for Statisticians course offered as an elective in the statistics master\u2019s program or as part of the <\/span>Graduate Certificate in Applied Statistics and Data Management<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0 \u201cWe also cover a lot of modeling techniques across most of our courses,\u201d Post adds.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This type of work is just one way NC State alumni are stepping up to make a difference. DeWitt\u2019s work will help local leaders make data-driven decisions to protect nearly 1 million people across the four counties.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This post was originally published<\/a> in Online and Distance Education News.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false,"raw":"Members of the Wolfpack have stepped up in unimaginable ways during the COVID-19 pandemic.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\nMichael DeWitt<\/span><\/a>, a 2019 graduate of the <\/span>Master of Statistics online program<\/span><\/a>, has been working since the beginning of the outbreak to forecast the spread of the pandemic in a few North Carolina counties for Greensboro-based Cone Health.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_107075\" align=\"alignright\" width=\"239\"]\"Cropped Michael DeWitt[\/caption]\r\n\r\nDeWitt is a data scientist and applied statistician in the health care field, and he\u2019s putting his NC State Online education to immediate use in this role.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n\u201cI am forecasting the spread of the pandemic in Guilford, Alamance, Rockingham, and Randolph counties and the corresponding impacts on our personal protective equipment (PPE),\u201d says DeWitt.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n\u201cI built a simulator in Shiny \u2014 hosted in a docker container \u2014 so that our leaders can manipulate the inputs,\u201d DeWitt adds. \u201cIt is quite frankly the most frightening work I have ever done because each data point represents a person caught in this pandemic, but it feels good to be in the thick of it.\u201d\r\n\r\nTeaching Associate Professor and Director of Statistics Online Education <\/span>Justin Post <\/span><\/a>explains this work and its significance in helping leaders make data-informed decisions.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n\u201cR is a powerful statistical software widely used in statistics and data science. R can be used to summarize data, create models, and communicate results,\u201d Post says.<\/span>\r\n\r\nPost explains that with the lack of PPE supplies in the current pandemic, being able to create a model that can be used to allocate the supplies is vital. \u201cThis model, of course, has to make assumptions and take in inputs. The model can be run using different inputs and the results compared. This can help to determine best- and worst-case scenarios among other things.\u201d<\/span>\r\n\r\n\u201cR Shiny is a package that can be used with R to create interactive web applications \u2014 similar to what is seen on <\/span>Johns Hopkins coronavirus website<\/span><\/a>,\u201d Post says.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\nThese types of interactive applications allow users to manipulate the inputs based on their expertise and knowledge. Medical and political leaders will then have the most information possible at their disposal.\r\n\r\nTo host the R Shiny applications in an accessible and secure place, DeWitt used a container.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n\u201cA container is essentially a self-contained bit of software. Everything needed to run the application \u2014 operating system, configuration files, R, etc. \u2014 is in one place without local dependencies, and the container can be assured of working as intended once hosted,\u201d says Post.<\/span>\r\n\r\nAll of these topics are covered in the ST 558: Data Science for Statisticians course offered as an elective in the statistics master\u2019s program or as part of the <\/span>Graduate Certificate in Applied Statistics and Data Management<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0 \u201cWe also cover a lot of modeling techniques across most of our courses,\u201d Post adds.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\nThis type of work is just one way NC State alumni are stepping up to make a difference. DeWitt\u2019s work will help local leaders make data-driven decisions to protect nearly 1 million people across the four counties.\u00a0<\/span>"},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Members of the Wolfpack have stepped up in unimaginable ways during the COVID-19 pandemic.\u00a0 Michael DeWitt, a 2019 graduate of the Master of Statistics online program, has been working since the beginning of the outbreak to forecast the spread of the pandemic in a few North Carolina counties for Greensboro-based Cone Health.\u00a0 DeWitt is a … Continue reading Statistics and COVID-19: Forecasting the Spread →<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"source":"ncstate_wire","ncst_dynamicHeaderBlockName":"","ncst_dynamicHeaderData":"","ncst_content_audit_freq":"","ncst_content_audit_date":"","ncst_content_audit_display":false,"ncst_backToTopFlag":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[5],"class_list":["post-169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-_from-newswire-collection-6"],"displayCategory":null,"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=169"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1586,"href":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169\/revisions\/1586"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.ucomm.ncsu.edu\/web-platform-free-tier\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}