Wildfire Risks from Hurricane Helene, One Year Later  

A year after Hurricane Helene’s destructive flooding, communities in Western North Carolina must now calculate for a different environmental threat. Wildfire season arrives in the fall, with an increased risk once trees shed their foliage.

“As soon as the tree canopy starts to erode, and you have more and more drought or drier conditions, that’s a wildfire risk,” said Jenny Dissen, an environmental engineer, NC State University alumna and director of engagement at the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies (NCICS) based in Asheville. 

This year, the risk is even higher. One year ago, the winds of Hurricane Helene leveled forests across North Carolina. The wreckage, spanning hundreds of thousands of acres, has become debris on the ground that can fuel a blaze. Downed trees also block firefighters from accessing wildfires. 

NC State’s NCICS is collaborating with the North Carolina Forest Service, the US Forest Service and others to address wildfire risks. If this year’s drier conditions persist in the western part of the state, counties that have barely begun to rebuild and recover one year after Hurricane Helene could face another climate crisis.

“Extraordinary Fuel Loads”

Early in the morning on Sept. 27, 2024, the fierce winds of Hurricane Helene began to blow through Western North Carolina. Even before the wind arrived, wet conditions had saturated the region. By the time gusts measuring up to 106 mph hit the mountains, Helene’s heavy rains — which exceeded 30 inches in some counties — had softened the ground so much that trees were effortlessly uprooted and blown down. 

The North Carolina Forest Service conducted an aerial survey soon after the storm and found that at least 822,000 acres of timber across 17 counties had been damaged. Some counties, such as Avery, Mitchell and Watauga, experienced damage of over 30% of their forestland. The hurricane caused an estimated $214 million in timber value loss, much of which is unsalvageable for forest products.

Emergency managers and researchers are coordinating with first responders to address the potential for these “extraordinary fuel loads” of felled trees and debris — material that can ignite easily. 

“The amount of dead and downed debris has created unprecedented fuel on the ground,” said Dissen, who co-authored “Wildfire Risk in Western North Carolina: Urgent Priorities in the Post-Helene Landscape. “These are extraordinary fuel loads.”

“All it takes is one person throwing a match out the window, or a cigarette butt,” said Dissen. 

While state-maintained roads have reopened or are reopening, many private and logging roads remain impassable. Areas stripped of vegetation, known as fire breaks, are also blocked by downed trees or have been washed out, making it challenging for fire crews to contain the fires. Natural fire barriers, such as streams, are now choked with flammable debris. This lack of access could result in larger, harder-to-control wildfires.

Hurricane Helene’s Domino Effect

Wildfire is not a new concern in Western North Carolina. But this year and going forward, the region faces heightened wildfire risks due to the widespread impacts of Hurricane Helene — a combination of factors that affect both natural ecosystems and urban infrastructure.

A blog post from the North Carolina State Climate Office described a “domino effect” of high winds that downed power lines, sparking two wildfires last December in McDowell County — an area heavily impacted by Hurricane Helene. The wildfire grew to more than 500 acres and took four days to contain.

Two months before, the county had been inundated by flooding from Hurricane Helene.

“Now the same area was on fire, illuminating another of the storm’s impacts that has become increasingly apparent since the floods receded,” wrote Corey Davis, the author of the blog post and an assistant state climatologist.

“In storm-damaged areas, these fires are only the beginning of Helene’s long-term impacts.”

Experts say that the immediate concern for Western North Carolina is the high ignition risk from smaller forest debris — little trees or bushes, branches, bark, and leaves — while felled trees continue to block access, especially on private roads. 

Within two to five years, large trees will dry out and risk turning into fuel for even larger fires. For up to 15 years or more, large debris will persist on the forest floor, increasing the risk of long-burning, smoky wildfires that hinder access to fire crews.

These heightened wildfire risks pose a threat the wildland-urban interface (WUI), areas where homes, businesses and other development intermingle with wildlands or forests. 

“The wood is still currently wet. It’s going to take years for that drying out process,” explained Dissen. “So, the risk actually magnifies for next spring and later next fall. The risk is not going away.”

Reckoning the 10,000-Year Flood

Ever since Dissen witnessed the destructive flooding of Hurricane Helene — and survived the long, dark hours of fear and uncertainty with her two children — she has had powerful moments of clarity about the critical need for climate resiliency.

One of the many hats Dissen wears at NCICS includes supporting the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), located in Asheville. Under the umbrella of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NCEI is the world’s largest archive of climate information. Weather stations, satellites, radar and buoys send data to NCEI from around the globe. The scientists there then translate it into usable information — such as the data that news broadcasts use to warn of extreme weather.

Hurricane Helene severely impacted the NCEI facility with power, internet, and critical water losses necessary for cooling computing systems. The center’s staff quickly improvised a backup cooling operation, with assistance from the Asheville Fire Department’s water tanker trucks to protect equipment and data. Nonetheless, the NCEI facility was severely impacted

The irony isn’t lost on Dissen.

“So, the very source of the data that initializes our weather forecast models is the data center that was affected by a weather event,” Dissen said.

All this has caused Dissen to reflect. Her home is half a mile from the French Broad River, but it was spared. Still, she remembers weeks without running water and days without internet connectivity or the power needed to charge her children’s hearing devices — and how so many endured far worse.

One year later, Dissen is one of many affected by Hurricane Helene who are reckoning with how unprepared their communities and the region were.

“I study climate change’s impacts on infrastructure, and I wasn’t ready,” Dissen said.

A Call for a Future of Climate Resiliency 

Dissen also sees the current moment as an opportunity. Having survived Hurricane Helene, she sees a hopeful future — and potential student opportunities — in climate technology and the re-engineering of cities to become climate-resilient. 

Dissen earned her bachelor’s and master’s degrees in civil and environmental engineering at NC State. Prior to joining NCICS, she worked with a large global management consulting firm in the energy industry for nearly a decade. She believes that our current moment requires the rapid reengineering of the infrastructure we rely on. 

“This is going to happen again,” said Dissen. “The impact is going to be significant because our existing infrastructure is engineered to a prior set of standards that no longer represent the extreme weather we are experiencing now.”

At NCICS, Dissen works with businesses and start-ups to support the development of new products that utilize NOAA data for the retail sector — a role that gives her optimism.

“There’s this immense burgeoning climate tech industry that could help create climate solutions,” said Dissen, who believes that AI is furthering that potential.

Dissen remembers that during her years studying at NC State, the question posed to her as an environmental engineering student was: What kind of home would you build to be carbon neutral? 

For Dissen — after reflecting on Hurricane Helene’s destruction and the critical role engineering plays in safeguarding communities from future storms and crises — the question for aspiring engineers to consider is, “How do we engineer for climate resilience?” 

The creativity, imagination and ingenuity of the next generation of engineers is key, she believes.  

“Our community is at the cross-roads of rebuilding after Helene,” Dissen said. “If you’re going to rebuild and design for the future, you can engineer for a climate-resilient city. The economic potential would be glorious — and a boon for this region. Let’s do it!”

The press release, “Wildfire Risk in Western North Carolina: Urgent Priorities in the Post-Helene Landscape” was co-authored by Jennifer Runkle, an epidemiologist and senior research scientist at NCICS. This story is based on the research and expertise of NC Forest Service’s Michael Cheek and Kevin Harvell, the US Forest Service, UNC- Asheville and partners from the UNC Collaboratory.

This post was originally published in NC State News.