Experts Predict 12 to 15 Named Storms This Hurricane Season
For Immediate Release
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will see 12 to 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, according to researchers at North Carolina State University. The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
The number of named storms predicted is in line with recent averages, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State. The long-term (1951 to 2023) average of named storms is 11, and the more recent average (1994 to 2024) is 15 named storms.
Of the predicted 12 to 15 named storms, six to eight may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of two to three storms becoming major hurricanes.
The Gulf of Mexico’s forecast is also in line with recent averages. Of the 12 to 15 named storms predicted across the entire Atlantic basin, Xie’s data indicate the likelihood of one to three named storms forming in the region, with one to two of them becoming hurricanes, and the potential for one to become a major hurricane. Historic averages for the Gulf are three named storms and two hurricanes.
Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin.
The forecast was made through a collaboration between NC State’s departments of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences and computer science. NC State adjunct assistant professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences Xia Sun is the lead scientist of this year’s forecast team.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
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This post was originally published in NC State News.